Contribution Analysis - Making Causal Claims in the Face of Complexity
The distinction our certainty rewrite rests on: attribution (tracing an outcome to a single cause) is the wrong test in complex change; contribution (showing your work plausibly mattered, against a theory of change, with rivals considered) is claimable and evidenceable. Sits alongside outcome harvesting and the Ford BUILD developmental evaluation as the funder-legible answer to “this work can’t be evaluated.” Saying causal tracing is impossible handed funders a reason to decline; this hands them a method instead.
✳ This entry was drafted with AI assistance and reviewed before publishing. See Rights.